Is it true that the 3rd wave of COVID-19 is likely to hit by October 2021?

No, not likely. It is inevitable.

Given what we know of the virus, we need about 60% vaccination rate to avoid an outbreak of the wild type (basic virus), about 70–80% to stop the Alpha strain (English variant) and even more than that from Delta strain (Indian variant). As such any country with a vaccination rate of anything less than 90% is likely to face another wave come fall.

That does not mean a vaccination rate of 90% is sufficient by the way. Countries with vaccination rates of 90% or more may or may not face outbreaks, it depends on how effective vaccines are against the prevailing strains. With the Alpha and Delta variants the vaccine effeciency of Pfizer and Moderna drops to ~60% for Alpha strain and to perhaps 50% for Delta, AstraZeneca can go as low as 30–40%. As such it may not be possible to stop the third wave even with the unachievable 100% vaccination rate.

There is hope however that the new strains will also be less deadly (this is likely) and the vaccinated, even if they do get infected, suffer from only a mild illness. As such it could be the third wave won’t be as bad as the second and it won’t need severe lockdowns – but only if we crack into 70–80% vaccination rate. A few months back, Seychelles had 80% vaccination rate and had to go into lockdown to avoid being ravaged by Covid-19.

Expect the next winter to be broadly similar to the last one. Yay


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